ASX Fintech/Payments Landscape — EML / ZIP / TYR

Shared with Eva (trade desk) per README rule: trading-relevant findings go to Eva via A2A. All figures below pulled from FY26 (yr to 30 Jun 2026) results/annual reports, verified 2026-09-08.

Summary

• Three very different businesses under one "fintech" label: EML = shrinking global prepaid/issuing, ZIP = high-growth BNPL at record profit, TYR = slow-and-steady Australian merchant payments + banking.
• Common regulatory thread for FY27: RBA finalised merchant payment cost/surcharging reforms in March 2026; surcharging ban effective 1 Oct 2026 — directly reshapes TYR and EML economics, indirectly BNPL competition (ZIP).
• Sector is event-rich right now: ZIP's 20 Aug results caused +18.2%/−15% two-day whipsaw — a reminder these names trade on guidance deltas, not just results.

Key findings

EML Payments (ASX:EML) — FY26 reported 18 Aug 2026

• Revenue $206.8m (−6% on FY25); underlying EBITDA $48.3m (−18%).
• Cash $37.8m after legacy-matter outflows; litigation provisions $15.8m current (vs $46.3m prior year).
• New program pipeline $109m (~$50m in tender/final-decision phase); FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance $50–54m.
• History to note: guidance cut 13 Apr 2026 ($58–60m → $47–50m) on implementation delays + weak northern-hemisphere trading; restructuring complete, Arlo deployment is the FY27 swing factor.
• Multi-jurisdiction compliance reviews ongoing at 30 Jun 2026 (regulatory risk not yet closed out).

Zip Co (ASX:ZIP) — FY26 reported 20 Aug 2026

• Record: cash EBTDA $268.9m (+57.9%), revenue $1,336.1m (+24.7%), NPAT $116.4m (+45.7%), TTV $16.7b (+27.2%), operating margin 20.0%.
• 12th consecutive quarter of group profitability; 6.5m active customers (+3.7%); US TTV +42.5% in USD, US cash earnings +51%.
• Credit: group net bad debts 1.77% of TTV (up from 1.52%); US Q4 1.67%, within 1.5–2.0% target band — watch this ratio, it is the key bear-case lever.
• Capital: $150m buybacks completed FY26, +$50m announced for FY27; nil corporate debt at group (per company release); NZ exit announced. Liquidity ~$246–257m (sources differ slightly).
• FY27 guidance: group cash EBTDA $340m (+26%), US TTV growth >30% in USD, operating margin 20–22%.

Tyro Payments (ASX:TYR) — FY26 reported 25 Aug 2026

• Gross profit $231.8m (+5.3%); EBITDA $66.9m (+8.6%), margin 28.9%; normalised PBT $24.7m (+40%); statutory PBT $22.3m; FCF $29.4m (+49.5%).
• TTV $44.3b (+2.9%): Tyro core payments volumes +4.4%, Bendigo Alliance volumes −10.5%; payment margin 45.9bps (+0.5bp).
• Health vertical volumes +6.4% to $7.9b but subdued (bulk-billing change headwind; recovery expected FY27); Allied Health +25.9%, Dental +18.7%.
• Banking: active accounts +34.6% (>14,500), deposits $118.9m (+27.3%), loan originations $187.8m (+19.4%), banking gross profit $16.5m (+23%); lending losses $3.6m (+21.7%) — small but rising with book.
• Thriday accounting platform acquired Jan 2026 — payments+banking+software wedge.
• FY27 guidance: normalised gross profit $240–255m, EBITDA margin 28.5–30.5%; explicit flag: surcharging removal from 1 Oct 2026.

Implications for us

• Comparison table for Eva's desk: EML = turnaround/de-risking bet (guidance credibility is the issue: one cut already in FY26); ZIP = momentum + credit-quality watch; TYR = defensive compounder with a regulatory catalyst in Oct.
• Regulatory calendar is shared alpha/risk: RBA surcharging ban 1 Oct 2026 hits TYR's margin mix, could reshuffle merchant acquiring economics sector-wide.
• Volatility warning: ZIP's ±15–18% daily moves show position sizing matters more than signal here.

Sources

• EML FY26 Appendix 4E + Annual Report (18 Aug 2026) via Listcorp PDF; EML ASX announcements index; MF&Co note on 13 Apr 2026 guidance cut.
• ZIP FY26 results (20 Aug 2026): Motley Fool AU, edgen.tech, earnings-call transcript (20 Aug 2026), Veye.
• TYR FY26: company media release + Appendix 4E/Annual Report PDF (25 Aug 2026), H2 2026 earnings-call transcript.
• ⚠️ Partial: ZIP liquidity figure differs by source ($246.5m vs $256.6m) — reconcile against the ASX statement before use in models.